October 15, 2008


Unexpected winner

I'm too tired to write a decent review of the election right now, so here's something completely trivial. The popular vote totals were:

CPC 37.6, LPC 26.2, NDP 18.2, BQ 10.0, Grn 6.8, Other 1.2

If you plug that into the Hill & Knowlton Predictor, you get the following seat count:

CPC 143, LPC 74, NDP 38, BQ 52, Grn 0, Other 1

And the actual results (pending recounts)?

CPC 143, LPC 76, NDP 37, BQ 50, Grn 0, Other 2

Not bad, especially considering that their formula completely ignores local dynamics.

Labels: , , , , ,

March 14, 2007


Guess who's getting ripped off?

The 2006 census results have been released.

During the 2004 federal election, I put together an Excel chart comparing the population of each province (based on the 2001 census) with how many seats they have in the House of Commons. I've updated it to reflect the new data; you can download the file here.

Here's some of the highlights. First off, we have each province's percentage of the total 2006 population, percentage of the current HoC ridings, and the difference between the two (a negative percentage means that province has fewer seats than its population warrants; a positive one means it has more).
    Population   Ridings   Difference
AB 10.41% 9.09% -12.7%
ON 38.47% 34.42% -10.5%
BC 13.01% 11.69% -10.2%
QC 23.87% 24.35% 2.0%
NS 2.89% 3.57% 23.6%
MB 3.63% 4.55% 25.1%
NB 2.31% 3.25% 40.6%
NL 1.60% 2.27% 42.1%
SK 3.06% 4.55% 48.4%
NT 0.13% 0.32% 147.5%
PE 0.43% 1.30% 202.2%
YU 0.10% 0.32% 237.9%
NU 0.09% 0.32% 248.2%
Now, based on the above data, here's how many seats each province should have in an ideal Parliament of the same overall size. I've included both the 2001 and 2006 results; the latter includes how many seats they'd gain or lose.
       Actual   2001   2006 (Diff)
AB 28 31 32 (+4)
ON 106 117 118 (+12)
BC 36 40 40 (+4)
QC 75 74 74 (-1)
NS 11 9 9 (-2)
MB 14 11 11 (-3)
NB 10 7 7 (-3)
NL 7 5 5 (-2)
SK 14 10 9 (-5)
NT 1 1 1 (N/C)
PE 4 1 1 (-3)
YU 1 1 1 (N/C)
NU 1 1 1 (N/C)
Total 308 308 309
(Note that technically, the territories would only warrant one seat between all three of them, although I've listed them here with one each.)

Based on this data, we can see that Alberta is the worst off when it comes to getting its fair share of representation, with almost 13% fewer seats than it should have. Ontario and B.C. are close behind, with just over 10% less. (In the 2001 data, B.C. was the worst off, with Alberta in third.) Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces are all over-represented to varying degrees; it's interesting to note that P.E.I. is worse than the Northwest Territories. I had always assumed that Quebec was considerably over-represented, but it turns out that it has almost exactly the right amount, with only one extra seat.


January 23, 2006


My Prediction

Since it's late and I'm tired, I'm just going to plug the latest Ipsos-Reid poll into the Hill and Knowlton predictor and call it a day:

CPC 155
Bloc 64
Lib 47
NDP 41
Ind 1

...which should make for a 39th Parliament only slightly less interesting than the 38th.

You heard it here first. ;)


June 14, 2005


Who's not there?

The House just finished voting on a Bloc motion to support older workers who are laid off from their jobs. The MPs were unanimous in favour, 301 to zero. This means that six people were absent or abstained.

The only two who I noticed didn't vote were Gurmant Grewal and Chuck Cadman. The other three independents (Parrish, Kilgour, O'Brien) were all there. Presumably Darryl Stinson wasn't there, so that leaves three unaccounted for. Anyone know who they were?

PS- As I write this, the Liberals are once again forming an "alliance" with the Bloc to defeat a Conservative motion to assist all families with child care, not just the ones with two incomes.

Update: Okay, by the time Blogger finally let me post this (2.5 hours after I wrote it), all the voting was over. The closest vote was 153 to 149 for the Liberals, which means five people were missing. CPAC identified them as Stinson, Grewal, Cadman, Dave Chatters, and one Bloc member whose name I don't remember. Apparently, the sixth MP who missed the first vote was a Liberal (again, I've forgotten the name) whose plane was delayed.


May 19, 2005


Here we go...

Voting starts in one minute.

Remember to breathe, folks.

Update: Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, and all three independents vote for the first bill (C-43), as expected. The Bloc is currently voting against it. Get to the good part, already!

Update 2: Bill C-43 passes, 250 to 54. Two people didn't vote, presumably Stinson and Efford. Bring on C-48...

Update 3: Cadman votes Liberal. gg all

Update 4: 152-152, Speaker Milliken breaks the tie for the Grits.


This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?